Appendix 9. Estimating needs - Measles treatments


The Excel file ESTIMATING NEEDS - TREATMENT for measles cases (see Toolbox) contains several worksheets, some of them protected.

This file automatically calculates the needs (according to the standard protocol) based on the epidemiological data entered. It facilitates ordering and drawing up a projected budget.

The first order should cover treatment needs for a reasonable period, taking into account order/delivery times (e.g., 4 to 8 weeks). Subsequent orders will depend on the progress of the outbreak and the needs.

Using the worksheets

– The file includes:
• a worksheet indicating the content of the treatment kits;
• four “Estimating measles treatment needs” worksheets (as well as a sample worksheet). Use one worksheet per order. If necessary, create new worksheets for subsequent orders.
– Fill in only the yellow boxes. Do not enter data into other boxes as this may modify the automatic calculations and generate errors.

“Estimating needs” worksheet

– For each order, enter:
• the expected attack rate for the epidemic period. The attack rate is hard to predict, but in the past the average attack rate for districts with 100,000 to 500,000 inhabitants has been 300 to 1,400/100,000 (0.3 to 1.4%);
• the desired buffer stock (generally 10 to 25%). The buffer stock for the first order can be larger to prevent shortages;
• the expected proportion of hospitalised cases This varies with the context (population density, access to care, etc.): 10 to 20% seems reasonable;
• the name of the district;
• the total population;
• the number of cases already reported.

The worksheet automatically calculates:
• the estimated number of cases for the outbreak;
• the number of cases expected (estimated cases minus already-reported cases);
• the buffer stock;
• the drug needs for treating all of the cases expected;
• the drug needs for treating the uncomplicated cases;
• the drug needs for treating the hospitalised complicated cases;
• the quantities of drugs and supplies needed to make up the treatment kits (kits 10 treatments “uncomplicated cases” and kits 20 treatments “complicated cases”).

– In the “Other items” table, enter useful items not included in the kits. These can be supplied with the first allocation.

– To determine the cost of the medical order, enter:
• the currency used;
• the unit price of each item (the price given is the suggested retail price in euros).
The worksheet automatically calculates:
• the cost for each item;
• the total cost of the order.